Working Group Report on Crop Husbandry, Agriculture Inputs, Demand and Supply
Loading...
Date
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
NITI Aayog
Abstract
The Working Group Report on Crop Husbandry, Agriculture Inputs, Demand & Supply examines India’s present and future food demand and supply requirements in the context of changing consumer preferences, population growth, urbanisation, rising incomes, resource constraints and climate change. Prepared by a Working Group constituted by NITI Aayog, the report provides projections for major food commodities and agricultural inputs for 2025-26, 2030-31, 2035-36, 2040-41 and 2047-48.
The report analyses historical changes in food consumption and expenditure, showing a shift away from staple cereals towards pulses, fruits, vegetables, animal-source foods and processed food products. It assesses current production performance and identifies significant yield gaps in several crops. The study projects future demand and supply under different economic growth and production scenarios and examines the potential demand-supply gaps for foodgrains, rice, wheat, maize, pulses, nutri-cereals, fruits, vegetables, edible oils, sugar, milk, meat, eggs and fish.
The report indicates that, under the Business-as-Usual scenario, overall food demand is expected to grow substantially by 2047-48. While production is projected to remain adequate for several commodities, pulses, edible oils, fruits and vegetables may continue to face supply constraints unless productivity and cultivated area are improved. The report also examines normative food requirements and emphasises that adequate production alone cannot ensure nutritional security; accessibility and affordability are equally important.
Description
The Working Group Report on Crop Husbandry, Agriculture Inputs, Demand & Supply is a 140-page NITI Aayog publication prepared by an expert group chaired by Prof. P. S. Birthal of ICAR-NIAP, with members from research institutes, central and state agriculture departments, and industry bodies. Constituted in August 2022, it projects India's food demand, supply, exports and farm input needs for 2025-26 through 2047-48, in support of the goal of becoming a developed economy by 2047. Under business-as-usual growth of 6.34%, overall food demand is expected to rise about 2.4% a year, and about 3.1% if the economy grows faster, with the fastest growth in pulses, fruits, vegetables and animal products. By 2047-48, rice, wheat and sugar are projected to be in surplus, while edible oils, fruits and vegetables, and meat stay short, and maize and pulses fall short unless yields improve. The report finds that production is sufficient for normative dietary needs but that actual consumption remains inadequate and imbalanced, so access and affordability matter as much as output. Because cropland can barely expand, future gains must come from higher yields and cropping intensity, which also raises input needs: fertilizer demand could reach 432 to 640 lakh tonnes by 2047-48, depending on how well government schemes curb chemical use, with pesticide and seed demand rising as well. On exports, India is the world's largest rice exporter with about 40% of global trade and is competitive in bovine meat and fish, but is less competitive in wheat, dairy and eggs. The report's main limitation is that household food consumption data after 2011-12 is unavailable, so its projections are cross-checked against national accounts and CMIE survey data.
Keywords
Citation
NITI Aayog. Working Group Report on Crop Husbandry, Agriculture Inputs, Demand and Supply. Government of India.
