A Multi Sectoral and Multi Regional Transport Model for India - Data Base and Calibration Techniques

Abstract

The working paper “A Multi-Sectoral and Multi-Regional Transport Model for India” presents an integrative approach to transportation forecasting, enhancing the Planning Commission’s macroeconomic input-output model by incorporating regional and sectoral dimensions. The model employs shift-and-share techniques for regional allocation of outputs and a doubly constrained gravity model to predict traffic generation, distribution, and modal splits between road and rail. Projected traffic volumes for 1982–2001 show significant growth, with modal shifts influenced by petroleum prices. By identifying network bottlenecks and integrating extensive regional and sectoral data, the study provides a robust framework for strategic infrastructure planning and transport policy, while noting future enhancements for improved economic feedback integration.